Izvestiya of Saratov University.

Economics. Management. Law

ISSN 1994-2540 (Print)
ISSN 2542-1956 (Online)

For citation:

Stolyarov N. O., Karpenko A. A. Strategic Due Diligence in the VUCA world: Integrating geopolitical and climate trend analysis into company evaluation. Journal Izvestiya of Saratov University. Economics. Management. Law, 2026, vol. 26, iss. 2, pp. 164-176. DOI: 10.18500/1994-2540-2026-26-2-164-176, EDN: JFELAH

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Language: 
Russian
Heading: 
Management
Article type: 
Article
UDC: 
005.52:005.334
DOI: 
10.18500/1994-2540-2026-26-2-164-176
EDN: 
JFELAH

Strategic Due Diligence in the VUCA world: Integrating geopolitical and climate trend analysis into company evaluation

Autors: 
Stolyarov Nikita O., Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba
Karpenko Aleksandr A., Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba
Abstract: 

Introduction. The article develops an approach to strategic Due Diligence in mergers and acquisitions under conditions of external instability. It is shown that classical Due Diligence, focused mainly on retrospective financial and legal review, is insufficient for assessing the future resilience of a business model. The purpose of the study is to justify strategic Due Diligence as an independent stage of analysis that takes into account geopolitical, climate, regulatory, and technological risks. Theoretical analysis. The article applies a process approach and examines strategic Due Diligence through the VUCA, BANI, and SHIVA frameworks, which make it possible to refine the interpretation of contemporary strategic threats. A BPMN 2.0-based formalization of strategic Due Diligence is proposed in order to ensure procedural reproducibility and greater transparency of decision-making. Particular attention is also paid to the company’s ecosystem position and its role in the value chain as factors shaping its overall vulnerability profile. Results. It is demonstrated that the use of these analytical frameworks deepens the interpretation of strategic risks, links them to deal parameters, and integrates them into the company valuation process. The study concludes that Due Diligence should evolve from a one-time review procedure into a more systematic model for assessing the strategic resilience of a target company.

Key words: 
strategic Due Diligence
VUCA
geopolitical risks
climate risks
BPMN
M and A
ecosystem
value chain
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Received: 
10.03.2026
Accepted: 
20.03.2026
Available online: 
01.06.2026
Published: 
01.06.2026