Izvestiya of Saratov University.

Economics. Management. Law

ISSN 1994-2540 (Print)
ISSN 2542-1956 (Online)

Full text PDF(Ru):
Article type: 

Ensuring national economic security: Scenarios for the coronacrisis exit

Manakhova Irina Viktorovna, Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov

Introduction. The COVID-19 pandemic has become a trigger mechanism for the deployment of a global economic crisis that has engulfed all countries of the world. The aim of the study is to analyze the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic as a global threat to the world’s largest economies. Theoretical analysis. Within the framework of the basic AD-AS model, variants L, V, N, W were modeled and possible scenarios for overcoming the crisis were considered. Empirical analysis. Anti-crisis measures and the main indicators of the economic security of China, the United States, Germany and Russia are analyzed. Based on international statistics, forecasts have been made to overcome the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus. Conclusion. It is concluded that ensuring national economic security depends on the scenario conditions for economic recovery, on the eff ectiveness of macroeconomic policy and risk management at the global level. 

  1. On the Strategy of the economic security of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of 13.05.2017 No. 208. ATP «Consultant» [electronic resource] (in Russian).
  2. ANO “National Priorities”. Stopkoronavirus.rf – The offi cial Internet resource for informing the population about the coronavirus (COVID-19). Available at: https://xn--80aesfpebagmfblc0a.xn--p1ai/  (accessed 10 November 2021) (in Russian).
  3. World Bank. Website. Available at: https://www.vsemirnyjbank.org/ru/home  (accessed 10 November 2021) (in Russian).
  4. Kurdin A. A., Kolomiets A. R., Markova O. A., Sluzhevskaya V. D., Filippova I. N., Shpakova A. A. Entering the pandemic: First measures of economic support and fi rst results. Nauchnye issledovaniya ekonomicheskogo fakul’teta. Elektronnyi zhurnal [Scientifi c Research of the Faculty of Economics. Electronic journal], 2020, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 7–25 (in Russian).
  5. Demertzis M., Sapir A., Tagliapietra S., Wolff G. An effective economic response to the coronavirus in Europe. Policy Contributions, 2020, no. 6, pp. 1–10.
  6. Mau V. A. Coronavirus pandemic and trends of economic policy. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2021, no. 3, pp. 5–30 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021- 3-5-30
  7. Odegov Yu. G., Razinov A. E. The COVID-19 Pandemic and its impact on the global labour market: An analysis of emerging trends (Part two). Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia, 2021, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 216–227 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.19181/lsprr.2021.17.2.5
  8. National Bureau of Statistics of China. Site. Available at: https://www.investing.com  (accessed 10 November 2021).
  9. US Federal Reserve, US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Site. Available at: https://www.investing.com   (accessed 10 November 2021).
  10. Institute of International Finance. Site. Available at: https://www.iif.com  (accessed 10 November 2021).
  11. Manakhova I. V. Global threats and risks on the path to noonomy. Ekonomicheskoe vozrozhdenie Rossii [Economic Revival of Russia], 2021, no. 3 (69), pp. 144–153 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.37930/1990-9780-2021-3-69-144-153