Modeling the impact of industrial development factors on the reindustrialization of the US economy
Introduction. In the context of deglobalization and regionalization of the world economy, the leading country of modern neo-capitalism, the United States of America, is modernizing the national industrial system, using internal and external factors of innovation and technological development. The subject of the study is the assessment of the impact of industrial production development factors observed in the United States in the 2010s on the reindustrialization of the country’s economy (in comparison with the previous decade). The empirical confi rmation of the phenomenon of reindustrialization as a strategic basis for the development of the American economy seems to be topical. Theoretical analysis. Based on the cyclic, wave nature of the economic development of the world-system, the “center” of which is the United States, the author identifi es two conceptual provisions that conditionally express external and internal contradictions, the solution of which objectively pushes the United States towards reindustrialization. Accordingly, the fi rst one is connected with the growing competition in the world market from the countries that “ride” the new technological wave, and the second one is connected with the solution of the problems of national technological security through the NBIC convergence of industrial production. Empirical analysis. Identifi cation and substantiation of the infl uence of factors in the development of American industry on the reindustrialization of the US economy is possible through economic and mathematical modeling, the basis of which is the method of principal components. The modeling includes a comparison of linear combinations of the initial factors of the development of American industry over certain periods of time, conditionally divided into two cyclical waves, which qualitatively characterize the multidirectional dynamics of the US industrial mesoeconomic system in the 2000s and 2010s. Results. The diff erence in the degree of infl uence of each of the selected factors, estimated by specifi c indicators of the US industrial development and modeled within a certain cyclical wave, is revealed. At the same time, the total infl uence of the considered factors of the development of American industry on the reindustrialization of the US economy can be considered generally unidirectional. This testifi es, fi rst of all, to the phenomenal nature of reindustrialization “Americanstyle” as a natural objective consequence of the cyclic-wave nature of the process of capitalist reproduction, which at the beginning of the 21st century is at the forefront of a change in technological patterns. In addition, the objective process of re-industrial modernization, confi rmed by the empirical data of the simulation, includes a subjective component in the form of increased state infl uence on the technologization of the industrial sector of the economy through the use of funds from the fi nancial and speculative sphere and protectionist measures in foreign trade.
- Glazyev S. Yu. National economy structures in the global economic development. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody [Economics and Mathematical Methods], 2016, vol. 52, iss. 2, pp. 3–29 (in Russian).
- Schwab K. Chetvertaya promyshlennaya revolyutsiya [The Fourth Industrial Revolution]. Moscow, Eksmo Publ., 2020. 208 p. (in Russian).
- Zuboff Sh. The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power. New York, Public Affairs, 2019. 704 p.
- Zakaria F. Ten Lessons for a Post-Pandemic World. New York, London, W. W. Norton, 2020, 336 p.
- Porter M. Mezhdunarodnaya konkurentsiya: Konkurentnye preimushchestva stran [International Competition: Competitive Advantages of Countries]. Moscow, Alpina Publisher, 2020. 947 p. (in Russian).
- Kondratiev V. Global value chains in industries: Common and specifi c features. World Economy and International Relations, 2019, vol. 63, no. 1, pp. 49–58 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-1-49-58
- Kondratiev V. B. Global value chains, industry 4.0 and industrial policy. Zhurnal Novoy ekonomicheskoy assotsiatsii [Journal of the New Economic Association], 2018, no. 3 (39), pp. 170–177 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2018-39-3-11
- Varnavsky V. G. The US Role in the World Manufacturing and Trade as a Global Issue. Outlines of Global Transformations: Politics, Economics, Law, 2018, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 100–112 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.23932/2542-0240-2018-11-2-100-112
- Minat V. N. Promoting the export of high technology products by the US processing industry. International Trade and Trade Policy, 2021, vol. 7, no. 2 (26), pp. 30–46 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.21686/2410- 7395-2021-2-30-46
- Minat V. N. Substitution effect in high-tech industry in the USA in foreign trade share and domestic market protection. International Trade and Trade Policy, 2021, vol. 7, no. 4 (28), pp. 5–25 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.21686/2410-7395-2021-3-5-25
- Porter M., Heppelmann J. How Smart, Connected Products are Transforming Competition. Harvard Business Review, 2014, vol. 92, no. 11, pp. 64–88.
- Greenberg E., Hirt M., Smit S. The Global Forces Inspiring a New Narrative of Progress. McKinsey Quarterly, April 2017, no. 2, pp. 89–112.
- Kietzmann J., Berthon P. Disruption, Decisions, and Destinations: Enter the Age of 3D Printing and Additive Manufacturing. Business Horizons, 2015, vol. 58, no. 2, pp. 209-215.
- Gudkova T. V., Loginova V. S. Reshoring Process in the USA Industry: Digitalization vs Globalization. USA & Canada: economics, politics, culture, 2020, vol. 50, no. 7, pp. 42–60 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.31857/S268667300010134-7
- Minat V. N. Federal fi nancing of scientifi c research and development in the USA: volume, structure, promising directions. Izvestiya of Saratov University. Economics. Management. Law, 2020, vol. 20, iss. 3, pp. 256–265 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.18500/1994-2540-2020-20-3-256-265
- Minat V. N. Government information policy and the dynamics of federal funding for the dissemination of US research and development results. Izvestiya of Saratov University. Economics. Management. Law, 2021, vol. 21, iss. 1, pp. 38–47 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.18500/1994-2540-2021-21-1-38-47
- Porokhovskiy A. A. American economy market mechanism: Digitalisation impact. USA & Canada: economics, politics, culture, 2020, vol. 50, no. 5, pp. 24–38 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.31857/S268667300009424-6
- Minat V. N. Public-private partnership in USA innovation. Izvestiya of Saratov University. Economics. Management. Law, 2021, vol. 21, iss. 4, pp. 380–391 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.18500/1994-2540-2021- 21-4-380-391
- Pechatkin V. V., Malyshev T. A. The competitiveness of the real sector of the USA, China and Russia in the context of the pandemic. Ekonomicheskie otnosheniya [Economic Relations], 2021, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 319–334 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.18334/eo.11.2.111995
- Vodolazhskaya E. L., Bystrov A. V. Modeling of innovative development of industry in the condition of cyclicity. Economic Bulletin of the Republic of Tatarstan, 2018, no. 1, pp. 44–50 (in Russian).
- Cornillon P. A., Imam W., Matzner-Løber E. Forecasting time series using principal component analysis with respect to instrumental variables. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2008, vol, 52, iss. 3, pp. 1269–1280.
- Tabachnick B. G., Fidell L. S. Using Multivariate Statistics. 4th ed. Boston, Allyn and Bacon, 2001. 408 p.
- Shappell S. A., Wiegmann D. A. The Human Factors Analysis and Classifi cation System–HFACS. Washington, DC, USA, Offi ce of Aviation Medicine, Federal Aviation Administration, 2000. 18 p.
- Gabdullin N. M., Kirshin I. A. Structuring multidimensional data in the study of the development of information society in Russian regions. Mir novoj ekonomiki [World of the New Economy], 2019, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 115–125 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.26794/2220-6469-2019- 13-4-115-125
- Novales A., Benito S. A factor analysis of volatility across the term structure: The Spanish case. Revista de Economía Financiera, 2007, no. 13, pp. 8–27.
- Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Industry data. Available at: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable. cfm?ReqID=51&step=1 (accessed 28 January 2022).
- Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). International Trade in Goods and Services. Available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-tradegoods-... (accessed 28 January 2022).
- Manufacturing Annual Report. United States Department of Commerce. Available at: https://www.pwc.co.uk/industries/manufacturing/insights/annual-manufactu... (accessed 28 January 2022).
- State of North American Manufacturing. Annual report. Available at: https://business.thomasnet.com/state-ofnorth-american-manufacturing-ualp (accessed 28 January 2022).
- The State of U.S. Science and Engineering indicators. Available at: https://ncses.nsf.gov/indicators (accessed 28 January 2022).