For citation:
Gavel O. Y. The influence of macroeconomic indicators on enterprises’ financial solvency. Journal Izvestiya of Saratov University. Economics. Management. Law, 2026, vol. 26, iss. 1, pp. 49-58. DOI: 10.18500/1994-2540-2026-26-1-49-58, EDN: KARIQT
The influence of macroeconomic indicators on enterprises’ financial solvency
Introduction. Studying the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and the financial stability of companies is an important task for economic forecasting and risk management. This paper attempts to assess the nature of this relationship at an aggregated industry level, which helps to minimize errors associated with the non-representativeness of samples of individual enterprises. Еmpirical analysis. The research is based on an analysis of aggregated data from 2,230,121 Russian non-financial organizations for the period from 2014 to 2023. To assess financial stability, dynamic series of six classical models (Altman, Taffler, Lis, IGEA, Zaitseva, Savitskaya) were calculated for the economy as a whole and for key industries. Correlation analysis was used to identify statistical relationships between the dynamics of the models’ integral indicators and macroeconomic indicators (USD exchange rate, key rate, inflation, oil price). Results. The calculations revealed stable correlational relationships between macroeconomic indicators and aggregated assessments of financial stability. The strongest positive correlation for most industries was observed between the dynamics of the models and the USD exchange rate. Industry-specific features were identified: the strongest correlations were found for the key rate in the construction sector, for inflation in trade, and for the oil price in the electric power industry. The results obtained using different models showed significant variability, indicating their differing sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. Conclusion. The conducted research demonstrates the promise of an aggregated approach for analyzing the impact of the macroeconomic environment on the financial condition of enterprises. The most consistent results in the Russian context were shown by the Altman, Taffler, and IGEA models.
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