Cite this article as:

Горячева И. А. Evaluation and Selection of Options Logistics Development Given the Uncertainty. Izv. Saratov Univ. (N. S.), Ser. Economics. Management. Law, 2015, vol. 15, iss. 2, pp. 175-?.


Evaluation and Selection of Options Logistics Development Given the Uncertainty

Introduction. At the moment when, any activity carried out under conditions of risk and systematically growing uncertainty, consideration of alternatives evaluation of logistics systems becomes a priority, which determines the objective necessity of search tools and algorithms implementation process make effective management decisions aimed at the development of the system in line with the target settings. Theoretical analysis. The uncertainty of the environment is manifested in its ability to be in one of a plurality of different states, as determined by destabilizing factors influencing parameters and status logistics system. Posed problems can be solved with the help of game theory, tools which allow you to select options for rational solutions and ways of development that is aimed at the realization of the growth potential of the logistics system and the achievement of its target plants. The criteria by which selected decisions under uncertainty, depends on the degree of uncertainty of information about the environment. Results. The result of the proposed algorithm select the option to develop the logistics system is the choice of the optimal strategy under uncertainty using the criteria of Laplace, Savage, Hurwitz Wald and evaluating various aspects of the effectiveness of management decisions in the most satisfying real conditions.


1. Razvitie innovatsionnoi sostavliaiushchei regional’noi ekonomiki [Development of innovative component of the regional economy. Under the general ed.
O. Yu. Gordashnikova]. Saratov, Publ. house «KUBiK», 2012. 290 p.
2. Demidova L. A., Kirakovskii V. V., Pylkin A. N. Priniatie reshenii v usloviiakh neopredelennosti [Decision making under uncertainty]. Moscow, Goriachaia liniia – Telekom, 2012. 290 p.
3. Smirnova K. A. Poniatie neopredelennosti ekono- micheskikh sistem i podkhody k ee otsenke [Concept of uncertainty of economic systems and approaches to its assessment]. Vestnik MGTU im. N. E. Baumana [Herald of the Bauman Moscow State Technical University], 2008, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 241–246.
4. Upravlenie korporativnymi izmeneniiami po kriteriiu ustoichivosti [Management of corporate changes by criterion of stability. Ed. by Yu. P. Aniskin]. Moscow, Omega-L, 2010. 404 p.

Full Text (PDF): 
Short Text (PDF):