For citation:
Yarmosh M. M., Firsova A. A., Fomenko A. V. Developing strategic scenarios for industrial development, taking into account the technological trends of Industry 4.0. Journal Izvestiya of Saratov University. Economics. Management. Law, 2026, vol. 26, iss. 3, pp. 298-308. DOI: 10.18500/1994-2540-2026-26-3-298-308, EDN: OWKZCZ
Developing strategic scenarios for industrial development, taking into account the technological trends of Industry 4.0
Introduction. The need for structural modernization of industry, reduction of dependence on imported solutions and technological sovereignty increase, production chains sustainability strengthening and transition from catch-up modernization to active strategic development actualize the problem of developing strategic scenarios for industrial development in the context of the new technological paradigm formation – Industry 4.0. Theoretical Analysis. The article considers theoretical and methodological approaches to developing strategic scenarios for industrial development in the context of the new technological paradigm formation – Industry 4.0. Key technological trends influencing industrial transformation are analyzed. The article substantiates the need for a transition from traditional strategic planning to scenario-based development models that take into account the uncertainty of the technological environment and adapt industrial systems to changing conditions, as well as a transition from fragmented digitalization to a comprehensive scenario for the transformation of production systems based on the integration of cyber-physical technologies, the Industrial Internet of Things, big data, artificial intelligence, and robotics. Results. Conceptual approaches to the formation of strategic scenarios for industrial development are proposed based on the assessment of technological factors, resource potential, and institutional conditions, and basic strategic scenarios for industrial development in the Russian Federation are identified. Conclusions. The scenario approach allows for consideration of enterprise heterogeneity, differences in their digital maturity, industry specifics, investment constraints, and technological sovereignty requirements. The most effective approach for Russia is to develop its own scenarios for the industrial future, combining technological innovation, economic rationality, and institutional sustainability.
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