Measurement and Analysis of the Impact of Bank Lending on the Economic Growth Rate (Russian Economy as a Case Study for the Period 2012-2019)

Abstract:
The problem of the impact of banking lending on the growth rate of the Russian economy is a promising issue, especially today. We have developed a methodology to measure and analyze banking lending in terms of economic growth based on creating a vector error correction model (VECM) and presenting impulse response functions for variable shocks. In the process of creating these techniques, we also computed econometric indicators that showed economic trends, especially in the years 2015, 2016, and 2017. The GDP growth rate throughout these years was considerably slower than the growth rate of the loan component of the GDP.
Based on this, I recommend maintaining a higher level of macroeconomic stability in the Samara region, reducing the high level of non-performing loans, ensuring that local loans are directed towards the real economic sector, and increasing the level of corporate governance in the financial sector. Thus, we can conclude that there is a significant relationship between the volume of issued loans and the economic growth of the Samara region. The data calculations for the proposed economic model confirm the hypotheses regarding the impact of loans on the region's economic growth.