public policy

Mathematical Justification of Economic in the Conditions of Falling of the Country in the «Underdevelopment Trap»

Introduction. Solving problems of technological development of Russia is an important task of formation of an innovative economy. In recent years there has been an intensification of mining operations and sales abroad, which can lead to rapid depletion of resources and the deterioration of the country in the future, but with competent macroeconomic policies, availability of raw materials and export of raw materials can be a major competitive advantage for the country. Theoretical analysis. The article analyzes the innovation of economic growth in terms of increase in production of natural resources, held in the framework of the Solow model, as well as evaluation and justification of the factors that negatively affect the economy. In the developed economic and mathematical model of growth based on the modification of the Solow model with constant saving rate. Discussion of results. In the simulations of the dynamics of technological development and analysis of the effect of the economy falling into the trap of underdevelopment in the lagging economy from the world’s technological leaders. It is proved that exogenous high prices for the resource at low technological level, capacity development and the level of education can lead to greater economic dependence on raw materials factor. With the help of mathematical modeling proved that at consistently high prices, the country will lose its potential for development and the economy will dominate the raw material component, further in the case of a fall in prices for the resource, the majority of investments in the economy again goes into the manufacturing sector, which, however, will have the potential for development insufficient to eliminate the backlog of the economy, may reduce the level of education in the case of inconsistency, which makes the output of the economy at world level impossible.