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Spirina V. S., Alekseev A. O., Andronova A. A. Analysis and Forecasting of Management Decisions in Commercial Real Estate Management. Izv. Saratov Univ. (N. S.), Ser. Economics. Management. Law, 2019, vol. 19, iss. 3, pp. 274-285. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18500/1994-2540-2019-19-3-274-285


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Analysis and Forecasting of Management Decisions in Commercial Real Estate Management

Introduction. The problem of managing commercial real estate, in particular shopping and entertainment malls, has a high degree of uncertainty. The external source of this uncertainty is consumer preferences that affect the choice of visiting a shopping and entertainment mall. In addition, high uncertainty is associated with the complexity of forecasting the results of management and business activities. Theoretical analysis. Increasing competition and increasing territorial concentration of commercial real estate makes the information on the current and projected attendance of the property by consumers relevant for effective management of real estate and business activities on the basis of the commercial object visiting. The significance of the consequences of wrong management decisions puts forward the requirement for the development and implementation of quantitative methods of forecasting and management with high accuracy and reliability properties. The basis for forecasting is a model proposed by the authors for assessing the consumer attractiveness of commercial real estate. Еmpirical analysis. The relevance and necessity of the problem of forecasting management decisions in the field of commercial real estate management is revealed. Results. A modified Huff model which is used to predict the attendance of the commercial real estate and consumer appeal is shown. The main feature of the proposed model is its versatility in relation to the type and format of commercial real estate. The introduced convolution Q, describing the quality of the property, is a function of many variables, the set of which and the type of functional dependence is individual for each type of commercial real estate. The model example of sensitivity analysis complex evaluation to changes in the status of private criteria that can serve as the instrumental basis of the decision support system is given. Also, the model example of sensitivity analysis and search for the optimal strategy of economic entities of shopping and entertainment complexes is shown. Screen forms of multi-user support system of making individual management decisions in the software environment RDS (Research of Dynamic Systems) are given.

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