Mathematical Modeling of the Russian e-Commerce Market Economic Conditions

Introduction. Since the end of the XX century, the concept of digital economy comprises the wide application of digital technology in different spheres of economy. Separate enterprises and whole economic branches transform the existing models of business processes, being oriented on modern means of communication. One of the most important factors influencing this process is the development of Internet technology. Theoretical analysis. The Internet, as a key channel of communication in the social sphere and commerce, has become the main driver for the development of a new segment of the consumer market – the e-commerce market. Since the first years of their work, online stores showed a high level of sales and opened up new directions in optimizing business processes. Almost 30 years have passed since the first outlet opening in the United States. Today it is a whole industry around the world, equipped with the latest technology, working almost offline. The Russian market of Internet commerce (e-commerce) today is experiencing an unprecedented rise. The growth in customer activity is due to such factors as convenience, saving time and money, speed of delivery of goods. Empirical analysis. It was revealed that the Russian Internet-trading market is a dynamically developing segment of the country’s consumer market. A quantitative assessment of the market is investigated, its structure is examined, statistical patterns are analyzed and trends of further development are substantiated. Results. The vector of e-commerce market development is designated, the results of modeling the dynamics of the market volume for the period 2020–2022 in Russia are presented, conclusions about the upward trend in both the domestic and cross-border markets are substantiated.

The Role of the Economy in Human Capacity-Building

Introduction. Human capacity is the main wealth of any social system. Public health is an economic resource and an important component of human capacity. Public health status, investing in health, demand for health capital determine competitiveness of labor force and economic development as a whole, as well as a particular branch – the health economy. Theoretical analysis. Considering health as a qualitive characteristic of the labor force, the impact of health on economic and social development of society and possible economic loss as a result of health-loss, both at the level of economy as a whole and at the level of an individual enterprise and individual, were examined. Empirical analysis. Based on statistical data, the share of health care expenditures in GDP and the assessment of GDP losses due to loss of health were analyzed. The task of forming the criteria of a health resource for the possibility of increasing human potential is formulated. The need for the maximum possible preservation of health with the available resources of nature and the economy is determined. Results. Based on theoretical analysis and statistical data, an assumption of the role of health as a driving force for economic growth, one of the most valuable economic resources, an important part of human capacity is formulated.

Exogenous Determinants of Hoarding Demand at Gold Spot Market

Introduction. Hoarding demand at gold spot market is mainly determined by non-price factors, which are divided into two large groups: endogenous, associated with the specifics of the functioning of the gold market, and exogenous, reflecting the processes and trends of the external environment relative to the gold market. The article analyzes the external non-price factors of demand for physical gold with hoarding purposes. Theoretical analysis revealed three groups of factors as exogenous determinants of hoarding demand for physical gold: military-geopolitical, financial-economic, natural-technological, the influence of which is set in each case by the prevailing configuration of exogenous determinants. The same exogenous determinants in different combinations can increase, reduce or maintain the hoarding demand at gold spot market. Empirical analysis included a comparison of three processes: changes in the gold reserve of a number of sovereign states, the volume of gold bullion in ETF vaults specializing in investments in this precious metal, and the gold reserves of the largest international financial organizations, with global trends in geopolitics and in the sphere of monetary credit relations, with the dynamics of the gold reference price in the period 2000–2019. This allowed us to conclude, firstly, that there is a dialectic connection between investment and hoarding demand at gold spot market and, secondly, about the possible interpretation of exogenous determinants as factors affecting the change in the usefulness of precious metals in new conditions, and, as a result, – transforming investment demand into hoarding demand. Results. Exogenous determinants that determine hoarding demand at gold spot market have a different nature, different manifestations, different power of influence on the behavior of market participants. Since the gold hoarding by some economic entities is accompanied by a “counter” process – the sale of previously accumulated gold reserves by other entities, the exogenous determinants of demand at gold spot market that determine the hoarding, at the same time, also determine gold dishoarding.

The Concept of “Industry 4.0” as the Basis for the Industrial Sector Reindustrialization

Introduction. The modern economy, based on digital technologies, poses the question for the public and private sector of how to modernize the industrial sector most effectively and smoothly through these technologies. Theoretical analysis. The researchers formed the idea of the need to modernize the industrial economy with the help of digital technologies, primarily through increasing the efficiency of planning processes and organizing the reproduction system. Empirical analysis. The analysis of the subtotals, the model of transition to the digital industrial sector Industry 4.0, introduced in Germany, is carried out. The key elements connecting the Internet of Things technology and the industrial sector of the economy are decomposed. The scheme of building global networks based on cloud-based platforms with communication between intelligent objects is considered. The main problems that enterprises face when introducing digital models in production are highlighted. Results. For the successful digitalization of Russian industry, in addition to harmonizing and harmonizing the interests of business and the state, developing an appropriate digital institutional environment, it also requires the development and harmonization of industrial standards, the implementation of a range of measures to ensure information security, training for digital industries and expanding cooperation in the “business – science – education – power” system. 

Ensuring the Company’s Economic Security in the Conditions of Economy Digitalization

Introduction. Currently, the economy digitalization is accelerating and transforming the company’s management system. The article discusses the problems and prospects of ensuring economic security in the context of companies’ digitalization based on personnel risk management. Theoretical analysis is based on the identification of personnel safety risks based on the systematization of theoretical practical and applied research done by Russian and foreign authors on this issue. Empirical analysis. The diagnosis of the personnel security level at the enterprise LLC “SEPO-ZEM” is carried out, factors that impede the digitalization of the company are identified. Results. Specific personnel risks that arise in the process of company digitalization are identified, which are connected with a lack of personnel with a high level of digital competencies, inability to synchronize ICT with business activities, information overload, non-compliance with the “digital diet” with a low level of “digital interaction culture”, etc. The degree of negative impact of personnel risks can be minimized by increasing the level of personnel security, in particular internal staff mobility, rejuvenating the team and regulating the fluidity level. 

Consumer Prices in Russia: Effects of the Exchange Rate Shocks

Introduction. National currency exchange rate change can lead to a change in prices for both imported and domestic goods. Therefore, the growth of inflation observed in 2014–2015, accompanied by the ruble depreciation, rises the question: what role did currency shocks play in this? The study is devoted to assessing the pass-through in Russia. Theoretical analysis. There are direct and indirect channels of pass-through influence in literature. The direct channel is based on changes in domestic prices for imported goods, expressed in national currency, and the indirect channel is based on the competitiveness of goods on the international market. In practice, in many countries there is an incomplete pass-through due to the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors. Empirical analysis. To estimate the pass-through monthly data on aggregated and disaggregated price indexes for goods (43 goods), exchange rate, money supply, industrial production index in Russia and oil price for 1997–2018 were used. The estimation was carried out by means of vector autoregressive model for the entire time period and for subperiods divided taking into account the crises of 1998 and 2008 and the sanctions set in 2014. Results. The estimates obtained confirm the existing scientific results on the incomplete transfer effect in Russia and at the same time demonstrate a large difference in its value for different categories of consumer goods. After the 1998 crisis, consumer price reactions to exchange rate shocks weakened.

Factors of Social Services Markets’ Restructuring in the Information Economy in Russia

Introduction. A modern economy, based on digital technologies and new consumption patterns, is restructuring not only traditional areas of business, but also markets that were not previously influenced by private capital. First of all, this applies to markets related to education and medical care. Theoretical analysis. The understanding of the modern theory of structural changes in the economic sector is based on the concept of structural shifts (qualitative changes) between the three main sectors (primary, secondary and tertiary) (J. Kruger, C. Clark, S. Kuznets), due to the uneven dynamics of their development (O. Yu. Krasilnikov). Theoretical and methodological approaches to the study of structural changes in modern economics are based on their assessment not as a consequence, but as one of the sources of economic growth (J. Lin). Based on the analysis of structural changes, conditions and tasks for an active structural policy are determined. Empirical analysis. The factors influencing the change in the structure of markets in the fields of medicine and education are decomposed. An analysis of the educational and medical services markets’ restructuring is carried out in the following areas: changing the nature of demand through new consumption patterns; the study of statistical information on the financial and physical volumes of the medical and educational services’ markets; determination of the state budgetary policy impact in the social sphere; assessment of disruptive innovations’ impact. Results. Among the most significant factors influencing the economic structure of the medical and educational sectors, there are such as changes in customer preferences and consumption patterns, market for relevant services’ restructuring and the emergence of new internal market niches, state policy that directly or indirectly affects the redistribution of financial flows within industries and the increased importance of modern digital technology application in the production of services.

Capital Market Structure Changes in an Emerging Digital Economy

Introduction. The structure of the capital market can be classified according to several parameters: time, institutional, organizational, etc. The article examines the functional structure of the capital market. Theoretical analysis. Various types of changes in the functional structure of the capital market due to the digitalization of the economy – human, monetary, currency, stock, credit and investment – are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to changes in the structure of human capital associated with the replacement of traditional economic activities (primarily based on the exploitation of natural resources) by technologically more advanced types. First of all, changes in the structure of monetary capital are the introduction of various electronic payment systems and non-state monetary systems based on cryptocurrencies. Shifts in the capital structure in the foreign exchange and stock markets are manifested in the transfer of major transactions into the virtual sphere. Changing the structure of credit markets in the context of digitalization has both positive (growth of lending) and negative sides (increase in overdue debt). Results. A conclusion is made about the contradictory impact of the capital market structure changes on economic dynamics in the conditions of digitalization.

Key Point of Modern Russian Economy

Introduction. It is theoretically and practically important to study the relations of the formation of a key point in the country’s economy development, since this will lead to a change in economic policy and to the improvement of economic relations. The article discusses the current problems of the country’s modern economy as a basic phenomenon of the need to form a key point in this process. Theoretical analysis. The concept of a key point of development, its modern characteristics and methods for its implementation, including innovative forms, are given. Discussion of results. In the modern Russian economy, there is a need to proceed to the formation of a key point in the economy development as an integral single existence of infrastructure instead of its fragmented development, which exists at present. Access to such a development is objectively necessary, although very difficult to achieve. Conclusions. The transition of the economy to providing a key point of development is objectively necessary. This requires substantial investment and changes in the existence of federal and regional authorities.

Digital Economy: Content and Development Trends

Introduction. The subject of the research is the basic properties and patterns of the digital economy development. Theoretical analysis. The methodology of the post-industrial and information society theory is used. It has been hypothesized that the digital economy is a new stage in the economy and society development. The structure of the information economy is revealed. New qualities of digital economy are defined, such as: the main type of product, transfer from goods production to service production, information-networking structure formation, change of proportions and destinations of investment assets, increase of creative work role, emergence of new management technologies, etc. Empirical analysis. The impact of digitalization on the activities of the state, enterprises and organizations, households and individuals is characterized. The features of the digital economy market relations development are substantiated. The influence of information and communication technologies and information resources on business functioning is shown. The growing activity of Russian enterprises and companies in the Internet is paid attention to. Trends and patterns of the digital economy development are revealed. The results can be applied in the development of concepts and programs aimed at accelerating the digital economy formation in Russia.