Izvestiya of Saratov University.
ISSN 1994-2540 (Print)
ISSN 2542-1956 (Online)

cрочная структура процентных ставок

Comparison of Accuracy between Different Methods of Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Introduction. Forecasting the term structure of interest rates is considered to be the complex problem. The experience shows that just a few models from the proposed in science literature provide us with much better accuracy in forecasting than random walk. This paper is devoted to the comparison of forecasting results’ accuracy for the different specifications of econometric models using Russian data for 2004–2014 years. Models. We use the next econometric models for the forecasting: random walk, autoregressive model, factor model, Diebold-Li model.