Analysis and Forecasting of Management Decisions in Commercial Real Estate Management

Introduction. The problem of managing commercial real estate, in particular shopping and entertainment malls, has a high degree of uncertainty. The external source of this uncertainty is consumer preferences that affect the choice of visiting a shopping and entertainment mall. In addition, high uncertainty is associated with the complexity of forecasting the results of management and business activities. Theoretical analysis. Increasing competition and increasing territorial concentration of commercial real estate makes the information on the current and projected attendance of the property by consumers relevant for effective management of real estate and business activities on the basis of the commercial object visiting. The significance of the consequences of wrong management decisions puts forward the requirement for the development and implementation of quantitative methods of forecasting and management with high accuracy and reliability properties. The basis for forecasting is a model proposed by the authors for assessing the consumer attractiveness of commercial real estate. Еmpirical analysis. The relevance and necessity of the problem of forecasting management decisions in the field of commercial real estate management is revealed. Results. A modified Huff model which is used to predict the attendance of the commercial real estate and consumer appeal is shown. The main feature of the proposed model is its versatility in relation to the type and format of commercial real estate. The introduced convolution Q, describing the quality of the property, is a function of many variables, the set of which and the type of functional dependence is individual for each type of commercial real estate. The model example of sensitivity analysis complex evaluation to changes in the status of private criteria that can serve as the instrumental basis of the decision support system is given. Also, the model example of sensitivity analysis and search for the optimal strategy of economic entities of shopping and entertainment complexes is shown. Screen forms of multi-user support system of making individual management decisions in the software environment RDS (Research of Dynamic Systems) are given.

Features of Structural and Technological Modernization of Industry in the Russian Federation

Introduction. The need for modernization is due to the achievement of the productivity limit within the existing technological order, as well as the systemic crisis of the Russian industry. Theoretical analysis. Based on the semantic analysis of terms, the essential features of the modern stage of modernization transformations were identified: large-scale changes in existing industries under the influence of the “breakthrough” technologies’ use, which will lead to changes in the chains of consumer value creation and the formation of new business models based on platforms; the emergence of new markets, whose members may become counterparties for enterprises of traditional industries; high importance of government initiatives for the implementation of transformations. Modernization beyond industry should affect both state and public institutions. Empirical analysis. Based on the analysis of statistical data, the current state of the Russian industry was assessed. The unevenness of industrial production in the sectoral and regional context was confirmed. On the example of the Sverdlovsk region, it is determined that the regional priority of structural and technological modernization of industry is mechanical engineering. Key areas of machine-building production growth in the region, prospective existing and future markets for the sale of their products, including radio electronics, additive manufacturing, aircraft and shipbuilding, railway technology, space systems, nuclear medicine, photonics, robotics, have been identified. Results. Most of the domestic industrial production corresponds to the third technological order, while developed countries are moving to the sixth. The thesis on the structural degradation of Russian industry, which occurred as a result of the deepening of inefficient specialization in low-tech energy- and resource-intensive industries and the actual loss of certain industries of investment and social importance, was confirmed.

The Statistical Method of Constructing a Forecast for the Real Estate Price Using Heterogeneous Data

Introduction. The article deals with the issues of constructing forecasts in the real estate market using heterogeneous data. Establishing a “fair” price of housing is an urgent task for collateral assigning, for insurance purposes, for determining the investment projects effectiveness, etc. To solve this problem, econometric pricing models are used, which are specified for the entire surveyed population. In case of significant heterogeneity of the surveyed population, the predictions obtained from these  models may contain significant errors. Theoretical analysis. Now, there is a variety of methods and models for the analysis of heterogeneous, spatially distributed data. Population zoning or a variable structure model is used to overcome data heterogeneity. It is connected with a number of problems. An overview of the approaches that implement these methods is given, their advantages and disadvantages are listed. A new method for constructing homogeneity zones, based on the results of the global model estimates building, is proposed to improve the forecast quality. The corresponding algorithm for calculating the local correction factor is described, which makes it possible to correct the global model forecast. Empirical analysis. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in action, a forecast for the real estate price, based on the empirical data of the regional real estate market, was calculated, and an analysis of the forecast results was given. Results. The proposed new method for determining homogeneity zones based on the results of forecasts using the local correction calculation makes it possible to avoid a number of problems arising from the use of other approaches and represents an effective forecasting tool.

Data Mining Methods for Financial Time Series Forecasting

Introduction. Data Mining algorithms enhancement leads to the solution of predictive analytics tasks in more efficient ways. The models ensembles are one of the actively developing areas, especially in those branches where predictive accuracy is more important than the interpretability of the model. Theoretical analysis. The forecasting problem requires careful study of the data set and methods suitable for analysis. It includes the solution of such subtasks as the choice of a forecasting model, the analysis of the forecast accuracy. Models ensembles are used to combine the predictions of several basic models in order to reduce forecasting errors and increase the generalizing ability of the individual models. Conceptual schemes are presented for the basic ensemble methods (bagging, boosting, stacking, blending). Empirical analysis. The practical aspects of forecasting financial time series, implementation of several models ensemble for forecasting problems are explored in the article. Results. To build models ensembles, we developed an application with a web interface that provides the ability to evaluate models with different error metrics, choose a more accurate models ensemble. With the web application, users can select and configure models to form forecasting ensembles, test the resulting models, and visualize the results. Testing of the models ensemble for the analysis of share prices time series is presented.

Mathematical Methods and Instrumental Means of Industrial Identification of Enterprises and Organizations by Economic Activities

Introduction. The task of sectoral identification of enterprises and organizations by type of economic activity is considered, which is understood as the following – to determine its main type of activity and industry affiliation according to the balance sheet or other financial statements of an enterprise. Theoretical analysis. Sectoral identification is required in six areas identified by the authors: checking counterparties (suppliers and contractors), checking conflicting statistics, financial analysis, bankruptcy forecasting, business valuation, and determining the stage of the life cycle. Еmpirical analysis. All necessary calculations and computer modeling were made in the special computer program named The universal cognitive analytics system “Eidos”. It was revealed that according to the balance structure, reduced to a specific type, it is possible to identify the sectoral affiliation of enterprises and organizations with a certainty of 83%, and also to determine the probability of bankruptcy with a certainty of 90%. Knowing the most characteristic balance sheet items, we can identify industry ratios for business valuation. Results. The ranges of balance sheet items characteristic of five industries: information technology and telecommunications, mining, construction, agriculture and chemical production are shown, as well as characteristic ranges of balance sheet items for insolvent and financially sustainable enterprises in the construction industry. The regression equation for estimating the value of the construction enterprises’ business is given, which can be used for rapid assessment as a method of industry coefficients.

Projects and Programs Portfolio Management: Modern Requirements

Introduction. Modern operating conditions of companies are determined by a number of global trends, such as changes in the format of doing business under the influence of digitalization and network economy, increasing the degree of environmental uncertainty due to the reduction of technological cycles and changes in the structure of transaction costs. This entails a change in the requirements for management technologies – they must be distinguished by flexibility, adaptability, and resource efficiency. Theoretical analysis. The methodological basis of the study was a set of theories concerning innovation management, portfolio and project management. The typology of project portfolios is represented by eleven types of portfolios. Project portfolio management models are classified by single and multi-criteria. The limitations of the well-known models of portfolio management application due to their low relevance to modern realities are noted. Empirical analysis. The main analysis method was a theoretical analysis of modern requirements for the functionality of the organization’s project management system. Results. It was revealed that the main requirements are to take into account the network effects of the mutual influence of projects in the portfolio, embed flexible technologies in the portfolio management process, and improve mechanisms for managing stakeholder and risks, as opportunities and threats. The obtained results can be used in practical work on projects and programs portfolios managing in any type of organizations.

Enterprises Competitiveness Improvement Based on the Choice of Strategic Development Alternatives

Introduction. The competitiveness of the enterprise has been and remains the main factor of the enterprise’s success and its good position in the market. The importance of assessing the competitiveness of machine-building enterprises and creating a mechanism to increase it is enhanced in the context of economic sanctions of Western countries against Russia, the need for import replacement and modernization of domestic production. Theoretical analysis. Improving the mechanism for managing the competitiveness of a machine-building enterprise includes highlighting the industry-specific features of machine-building as a branch of production and the features of the market for machine-building products. The research methodology is an integrated approach to assessing the competitiveness of a machine-building enterprise, including a methodology and a matrix for analyzing strategic alternatives for the development of a machine-building enterprise (ASAR matrix), developed on the basis of the SPASE-methodical approach. Empirical analysis. The factor analysis was used to identify strategic alternatives for the development of the enterprise. This made it possible to assess the strength of the relationship and interdependence of the main development factors in modern conditions of international economic sanctions, to clarify the elements of the competitiveness management system of a machine-building enterprise, to identify strategic alternatives to the development of a machine-building enterprise in modern conditions. A comprehensive assessment of the competitiveness of a machine-building enterprise was carried out on the basis of an expert assessment of 41 strategic alternatives. The method of comparative analysis, the graphic method and such traditional methods for assessing the competitiveness of products such as SPACE analysis and the KFU method are used as the main research methods. Results. The methodology and results of the analysis of the current competitiveness of an enterprise based on the construction of a matrix of strategic development alternatives are presented. The use of recommendations concerning the choice of a strategic direction of competitive struggle in the practical activity of an enterprise and strengthening the competitiveness of an enterprise as a whole will increase its resistance to external shocks and impacts and will ensure the solution of the tasks of improving business processes.

The Formation of Design Thinking Skills Among Managers in the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Introduction. The fourth industrial revolution is changing the demands for knowledge and skills that managers at all levels in business, government and the non-profit sector must possess. Theoretical analysis. Creative thinking, the ability to organize the generation of new ideas, as well as a systematic approach to solving complex problems are recognized as important. One of the approaches that is used for the formation of creative thinking is design thinking. This approach is currently used by leading companies and non-profit organizations to ensure competitive advantages. Еmpirical analysis. The article analyzes publications on the emergence and spread of design thinking, its role in the training programs for innovators at leading universities and business schools in the world. The author’s experience on the application of this approach in the educational process of Russian universities and in continuing education is also analyzed. Discussion and results. The analysis confirms the fact that learning design thinking contributes to the development of creative thinking, increases the students’ confidence in their creative potential, forms skills in a multidisciplinary team. The conclusion is made about the importance and relevance of training managers to creative thinking.

Influence of the Vocational Guidance System on the Efficiency of the Labor Resources Use and Labor Productivity

Introduction. Given the high dynamics and stochasticity of demand and its magnitude in modern markets for goods and services, the issue of career guidance at all stages of an employee’s life cycle becomes highly relevant. An efficiently formed and functioning system of vocational guidance will allow you to avoid excessive expenditure of resources by the employee himself, the organization and the national economy as a whole, providing opportunities for increasing productivity. Theoretical analysis. Assessment of labor depends on such characteristics of a person who possesses it, as his intellectual and physical abilities. However, the assessment of the labor market has three aspects that depend on its subjects: employers, workers and governmental bodies. Each of the subjects has their own interests in the labor market and tools for their implementation. However, the analysis shows that the need to develop an effective system of vocational guidance is equally relevant for all subjects. The basis of the formation of this system, as well as the preparation of future specialists, should be based on close interaction between educational institutions and future employers, as well as analysis and forecasting of external trends regarding the labor market environment. Empirical analysis. The Russian labor market is characterized by high dynamics of job creation and liquidation in various industries, and the ratio between the number of jobs created and liquidated in different industries varies. This allows us to make a conclusion about the relevance of the redistribution of part of the released workers to other sectors, which actualizes the issues of vocational orientation and retraining of labor resources. Also for the Russian labor market the following trends can be identified: imbalance of supply and demand; the growing popularity of working professions; the need to continue working with staff available; the increase of employees working at home; the inevitability of increasing the age of employees of enterprises and organizations. Results. The way out of this situation is seen in building a system of preparing young people for the informed choice of a profession based on the formation of a new model of vocational guidance for young people and the development of an integrated strategy for developing the country’s economy’s personnel for several years (at least 5–7 years).

Global Digital Space: Prospects and Threats to the Economic Development of Countries

Introduction. Currently, the world is creating a global digital space. This process covers, to a greater or lesser extent, virtually all countries of the world. The relevance and vitality of this process is proved by the digitalization of not only the economy, but also of all spheres of human activity. Despite the increasing degree of research of this process, there raises the question of finding the threats and prospects that should be expected from digitalization for the economic development of our country. Theoretical analysis. The historical aspect of the digital economy development is investigated, the causes of this process are revealed. The article notes the first identification of this concept with such concepts as e-Commerce, file exchange through a peer-to-peer network. We consider the prevention of simplified understanding of digitalization, linking it only with these concepts. The data on the emergence of completely different phenomena, connected with the digitalization in the XXI century, the features of this process in different countries of the world in the context of the existing process of globalization are given. Both advantages and threats associated with the penetration of digitalization into the global space are considered. The benefits of digitalization are linked to the ease of copying, transmission and dissemination of information. The threats to the global space that are caused by the spread of digitalization can be associated with copyright infringement, copying, “piracy”, which ultimately results in the loss of investment. The influence of external political and economic threats that are applied to our country can no longer exclude Russia from the list of business partners in these new conditions of globalization. Digitalization erases all obstacles to cooperation between different countries, including Russia. Empirical analysis. The article analyzes the facts that prove the undeniable advantages of digitalization for all countries. The leaders in the market of IT are revealed, taking into account such indicators as the number of Internet users, convenience/difficulty of access, the availability of analog additions, the developed telecommunications market, which does not exclude the possibility of its further development. It is noted that today they influence the transition of countries from one category to a higher one. In this regard, the classification of countries presented by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is relevant. It is based on indicators showing the presence of high technology: the relative level of development of digital operations and GDP per capita, the degree of economic operations’ digitalization. These data make it possible to identify the most developed countries. There are currently no more than six. Results. Taking into account the factors described in the article will contribute to the implementation of the main goal of digitalization penetration into the global space – the achievement of business success in all countries, including Russia. This makes it possible to speak about a new meaning of the concept “globalization” and makes the thesis of “the invisible hand of the market”, i.e. personal interest, relevant again.