экономический рост

Econometric Analysis of the Financial Market Structure’s Influence on the Russian Federation’s Economic Growth

Introduction. Currently, the study of the role of financial intermediation as an important auxiliary mechanism of economic growth has received considerable attention in the theoretical and empirical literature. The problems of economic and mathematical modeling of causal relationships between the rates of economic growth and the dynamics of the financial system development attract the attention of a large number of both foreign and Russian specialists. Most authors believe that not only depth growth, but also a change in the financial sector structure (the ratios between its various segments) can have an impact on economic growth. A quantitative assessment of the impact of the financial market’s type of structure (bank-oriented or based on the securities market) on economic growth is of practical interest. The aim of the work is an econometric study of the influence of the ratio of bank credit volume and the issuance of securities on the rate of economic growth in Russia. The observation period is from Q1 2003 to Q4 2017. Theoretical analysis. In Russia, a bank loan has penetrated into the economy much deeper than the securities market, which lags far behind in terms of depth and efficiency from the world average. The indicators characterizing the structure of the financial market are the volume of bank lending (with the allocation of loans to individuals and organizations) and the total market capitalization of shares traded on the Moscow Stock Exchange. The paper uses an econometric methodology for studying the statistical relationship between non-stationary time series, including tests for the Ingle-Granger cointegration, the study of causality and the response to shocks based on the vector-based error correction model (VECM). Empirical analysis. A comparison of time series of quarterly values of financial structure indicators, as well as Russia’s GDP for 2003–2017 is carried out. The article presents a statistical comparison of the level of development of the Russian stock market relative to the markets of developed and developing countries. The modern econometric Gretl package was used for calculations and modeling. Results. The cointegration of non-stationary time series has been established: gross domestic product, total capitalization of the Moscow Exchange, and bank lending to individuals and legal entities. The Ingle-Granger test found a cointegrating relation that confirms the long-term equilibrium relationship between variables and the authenticity of their correlation. It is shown that economic growth largely depends on the development of a bank credit and to a lesser extent on the growth of the market capitalization of shares. It is shown that in terms of contribution to economic growth, loans to organizations are more than twice as large as loans to individuals. Decomposition of the variance of forecast errors in the medium term revealed the influence of loans to organizations on the dispersion of economic growth and bank credit.

Cross-Country Analysis Influence of Banking Credit on Economic Growth

Introduction. The aim of the work is to econometrically study the impact of bank lending on economic growth rates on the basis of cross-country comparisons based on average data for 2005–2015. Theoretical analysis. In the article it is proposed to use the Schumpeterian model of convergence between countries with financial constraints, which was improved in [1] to analyze the influence of bank lending on economic growth. Empirical analysis. Based on the improved Schumpeterian model of convergence between countries with financial constraints, an econometric modeling of the impact of bank credit on economic growth was conducted for three groups of countries with a high, medium and low value of the human development index. Results. Empirical cross-country studies have confirmed the ambiguous impact of bank lending on economic growth in countries with different levels of socio-economic and financial development. In countries with high HDI values, the direct channel of the impact of bank lending on economic growth has been insignificant, and the convergence of growth rates has been achieved mainly through the process of technology transfer and increased production efficiency. In countries with an average HDI, lending has a direct positive effect on growth rates, but does not increase the likelihood of convergence through a more developed financial system. In countries with a low level of development, the only significant factor is investment in fixed assets. The indirectly obtained results show that only an investment credit for the development of the real sector of the economy, and not all credit in general has a positive impact on economic growth.

Analysis of Banking Sector Influence on Economic Growth of the Russian Federation

Introduction. At present, the central problem for most countries in the world is to achieve sustainable economic growth rates. Traditionally, the factors of economic growth include labor, natural resources, physical capital, technology. Recently, the level of development of the financial system and, in particular, of the banking sector providing loans to the real sector of the economy with financial resources has been singled out separately. The aim of the work is to econometrically study the impact of bank lending on economic growth, testing on the Russian data of cause-effect relationships and reactions to shocks. The observation period is from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2016 (68 quarter-mean values). Theoretical analysis. A comparative analysis of modern approaches, adopted in foreign and domestic literature, to study the influence of various factors on economic growth. The econometric methodology of the study of the statistical interrelation between nonstationary time series, including Ingle-Granger cointegration tests, causality research and shock responses based on the vector error correction model (VECM) was used in the work. Based on the recommendations of economic theory and analysis of foreign and domestic literature, the following macroeconomic and financial indicators were selected as factors of economic growth: the volume of investments in fixed assets, the unemployment rate and the volume of bank lending. Empirical analysis. Comparison of time series of quarterly values of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the banking sector of Russia for 2000-2016 is carried out. For calculations and modeling, the modern econometric package Gretl was used. Testing for stationarity, determination of the degree of integration (I = 1); tests for coin-tegration (confirmation of the presence of cointegration ratio); Cointeratation analysis, causality testing and shock response analysis using VECM. Results. Based on the Inglane-Granger test, cointegration of the nonstationary time series studied is established: GDP, the volume of bank lending, the volume of investment in fixed assets. A statistically significant dependence of GDP on the indicators of the banking sector and the real economy was found. The existence of the effect of bank lending on GDP has been quantified, but to a lesser extent than the impact of investment in fixed assets and unemployment. A vector model of error correction is constructed and the functions of the impulse response to variable shocks are investigated. The Granger causality test confirmed the interdependence between macroeconomic indicators and the volume of bank lending.

Development of Russia in the Conditions of Global Economic Instability

Introduction. The current stage of globalization is characterized by increased economic instability, which requires a search the mechanism that allows to minimize the emerging economic risks and to obtain some advantages in the changed circumstances. The author makes the hypothesis that in our country we should go towards the creation of economic and technological leading state. Theoretical analysis. The analysis of structural shifts in the global economy demonstrates the need for changes in the design of global and national regulation, because it isn’t acceptable to the vast majority of countries and their associations. The emergence of new contradictions and crisis phenomena at the national and global level makes necessary the determination of directions for transition the domestic economy to sustainable economic growth. The formation of effective economic system will allow Russia to become the world center of economic influence. Empirical analysis. The analysis and diagnosis of the economic growth in the Russian Federation indicate the entrance of the domestic economy in the zone of protracted recession. This involves the working out managerial decisions aimed at overcoming recession and moving to the phase of economic growth on the basis of mo dernization of state management system in the conditions of new global challenges. Results. The system character of solutions existing problems on the basis of transformation of the fundamentals of the economic system to improve its dynamism and adaptability is justified.


Введение. В современной экономике, когда на первый план по своей актуальности выходят вопросы формирования ее эффективной структуры, обеспечения устойчивого роста и развития, очевидна потребность в критическом разборе моделей эконо- мического роста и всестороннем анализе его факторов. Теоретический анализ. В статье рассматриваются как базовые модели экономического роста, так и новые модели, в которых движущим фактором экономического роста выступают иннова- ции, являющиеся результатом производства такого специфи- ческого сектора современной экономики, как сектор научных исследований и разработок. Обсуждается вопрос взаимосвязи научного, материаль но-вещественного и кадрового потенциалов современной экономики, представляющейся важным фактором ее инновационного развития. Заключение. Отражая сущность общественного производства в динамике, экономический рост на современной фазе развития имеет своим главным фактором инновации, являющиеся продуктом и результатом интеграции интеллектуального и материально-вещественного капитала. Данный факт подтверждается существующими современными моделями экономического роста, устанавливающими функциональную зависимость между ростом производства и научно-техническим прогрессом.

Mathematical Justification of Economic in the Conditions of Falling of the Country in the «Underdevelopment Trap»

Introduction. Solving problems of technological development of Russia is an important task of formation of an innovative economy. In recent years there has been an intensification of mining operations and sales abroad, which can lead to rapid depletion of resources and the deterioration of the country in the future, but with competent macroeconomic policies, availability of raw materials and export of raw materials can be a major competitive advantage for the country. Theoretical analysis. The article analyzes the innovation of economic growth in terms of increase in production of natural resources, held in the framework of the Solow model, as well as evaluation and justification of the factors that negatively affect the economy. In the developed economic and mathematical model of growth based on the modification of the Solow model with constant saving rate. Discussion of results. In the simulations of the dynamics of technological development and analysis of the effect of the economy falling into the trap of underdevelopment in the lagging economy from the world’s technological leaders. It is proved that exogenous high prices for the resource at low technological level, capacity development and the level of education can lead to greater economic dependence on raw materials factor. With the help of mathematical modeling proved that at consistently high prices, the country will lose its potential for development and the economy will dominate the raw material component, further in the case of a fall in prices for the resource, the majority of investments in the economy again goes into the manufacturing sector, which, however, will have the potential for development insufficient to eliminate the backlog of the economy, may reduce the level of education in the case of inconsistency, which makes the output of the economy at world level impossible.

Innovative Development of the Saratov Region: the Arguments «Pro» and «Contra»

Introduction. The article proposes to consider innovation not only as a factor of economic development, as well as a tool to resolve difficult conflicts and overcome the limitations that can not be overcome by other means. Theoretical analysis. In the process of development of economic systems they formed conservative structures that this development is stopped. The paper put forward the hypothesis that such contradictions are not solved structures of the economic system. And they themselves contradictions and limitations arising from them can be overcome only through external innovation. Empirical analysis. Through the prism of the proposed model of the innovation process is considered the economic evolution of the Saratov region. By bringing the various arguments given assessment of the innovation process in the Saratov region at the present stage. Results. It is concluded that the formation of the economic system in the Saratov region of the complex insoluble contradictions: the branch structure of the deformation, the uncertain position of the region in the nationwide system of division of labor, the lack of public resources, the unattractiveness of the region for investors, low quality of regional management. According to the authors, the resolution of conflicts and overcoming the limitations posed by them is only possible at the expense of external innovation.

Target Indicators as a Tool in the Management of Social and Economic Development

Introduction. The effectiveness of management activities and the successful achievement of the major objectives of social and economic development are highly dependent on competent analysis and evaluation, planning future actions. Methodology. The complex target indicators, the use of which is essential in the formation of social and economic development, formed as a result of scientific work. The complex includes: the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment, inflation, volume of net exports in GDP, the share of investment in fixed assets in GDP, the effectiveness of cost in technological innovation. Comprehensive assessment and correlation analysis of information on these indicators performed. Theoretical analysis. The need for the proposed system of indicators that serve as important indicators of the state and economic development is founded. The concept of «target indicators» suggested that it had not been formulated in economics. Model target indicators, allowing to define the dynamics of the extensive and intensive economic growth and the impact on the level of automation has to offer. Methods of calculating indicators for the proposed model is formed and calculations are presented. Conclusion. The results of the present work allow multifactorial determine the relationship and interdependence of the main macroeconomic indicators of economic development, to carry out their forecasts further values. It is possible to trace the main development trends of the economy of the presented model.

Modeling of Innovative Development of Economy on the Basis of the Two Sector of Endogenous Growth

Introduction. Addressing the issues of economic development is driving growth and welfare of countries. Economic development of a country depends on the competitive advantages of the industrial complex and primarily commodity sector of the economy. Theoretical analysis. In the article the theory of imitation and innovation in the framework of endogenous theory economic development to study the dynamics of innovative development of countries with developing and transitional economies. The analysis of the innovative growth of economy in the conditions of increase of volumes of extraction of natural resources, conducted in the framework of the Solow model. Based on the study of foreign and domestic models of economic growth developed an approach that includes a simulation phase, which is the borrowing of advanced technology, and innovation, which dramatically increases the role of private research and development. Discussion of results. The article examines the factors hindering the growth of technological backwardness trap under- and overinvestment. Developed a model that describes the economy consisting of two sectors: the manufacturing sector and the sector of extraction of exhaustible resource. It is proved that in the context of a multisector approach and the endogenous dynamics of technical progress, the nature of the relationship between sectors is complicated. Thus in this work the study of this dynamics is performed using the methods of numerical simulation and mathematical description of the production function of the studied sectors.

The Question of How Endogenous Growth Conditions and Criteria Modernization

Introduction. Food security in Russia, increasing the competitiveness of the Russian economy on the world market is now becoming a driver of economic growth. Theoretical analysis. The article analyzes the theories of economic growth. Formulated conditions, factors and assumptions of technological modernization of the economy. The principles of the impact on ekonomiku- 5I. Discussion of results. In the framework of the theory of endogenous growth models and existing approaches are organized into groups. It is proved that the optimal point for Russian economic growth is the high-tech sector, who is at the stage of innovation development. Along with the existing traditional factors endogenous growth presents modern factors such as level of education, capital productivity, efficiency innovation, social development, inter- national trade, innovative management approaches. Based on the statistics of the World Bank formulated trends of the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, and Russia, Brazil, Nigeria. Proved the impact of investment in science in developed countries and in countries with an average level of intellectual capital on economic growth.