Cite this article as:

Cheremisinov G. A., Gritsak L. Е. Theoretical and Methodological Modelling Based on the Major Cycles Concept of by N. D. Kondratyev: Problem Statement. Izv. Saratov Univ., Economics. Management. Law, 2013, vol. 13, iss. 3, pp. 278-284. DOI:

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY 4.0).

Theoretical and Methodological Modelling Based on the Major Cycles Concept of by N. D. Kondratyev: Problem Statement

Interest in major cycles concept by N. D. Kondratyev has been lately linked with its applied usage for analysis and evaluation of the perspectives of economy’s crisis state of leading countries and world economy. Development of fundamental economic theory and formation of renewed educational courses by means of theoretical and methodological modeling can be carried out within the framework of major cycles paradigm by N. D. Kondratyev. Research methods. The article presents the theoretical and methodological modeling potential based on the major cycles concept. The study uncovers the interconnection between model factors: technological, social and demographic, ecological, capital accumulation, dynamics of the monetary conversion sphere, outlet market development, correlation of forces between different countries on the world market, actions of social groups inside separate states. Results. Major cycles define the dynamics of development of the society’s economic development, which can be viewed as a special economic paradigm, which is a system of economic knowledge and practical skills, behavior samples, stimuli and regulators of reproduction, organizational forms, legal, cultural, religious norms, and ideological settings. There is a close interconnection between dynamics of country economy’s conjuncture and state enterprise. The article shows the possibility of theoretical and methodological modelling of spatio-temporal design and economy’s long wave oscillations within the framework of the world system analysis. Conclusion. Interchange of periods of long-term falls and rises in the Russian economy coincided with the change of state enterprise practice. Repetition of events shows the consistency of transition from one economic paradigm to another under conditions of revolutionary breakage of all social norms.

  1. Ayvazov A., Kobyakov A. Nikolay Kondratev kak «zerkalo» krizisa (Nikolay Kondratev as a «mirror» of the crisis). Available at: (accessed 08 April 2013).
  2. Khazin M. O tsiklakh Kondrateva (On the Kondratev’s cycles). Available at:  (accessed 09 February 2013).
  3. Glazev S. Ju. O tselyakh, problemakh i merakh gosudarstvennoy politiki razvitiya i integratsii (On the purpose, problems and measures of the state policy of development and integration). Available at:  (accessed 08 February 2013).
  4.  Kondratev N. D. Bolshie tsikly konyunktury [The Large Cycles of the Conjuncture]. Voprosy konyunktury. Moscow, 1925, vol. 1, iss. 1, pp. 28–66.
  5. Vallerstajn I. Analiz mirovyh sistem i situatsiya v sovremennom mire [Wallerstein I. World-systems analysis and situation in modern world]. St. Petersburg, 2001, 416 p.
  6. Braudel F. Le temps du monde. Civilisation matérielle, économie et capitalisme, XV–XVIII siècle. Paris, Armand Colin, 1979, 3 vol. [Russ. ed.: Brodel F. Vremya mira. Materialnaya civilizaciya, ekonomika i kapitalizm, XV–XVIII: in 3 t.]. Moscow, 1992, vol. 3. 680 p.
не проверена