The Statistical Approach to the Analysis and Forecasting of Demographic Data

Introduction. Possibilities of application ARIMA-models to analysis and forecasting of demographic time series were considered in the article. Foreign studies had shown that the ARIMA-models give good results for forecasting indicators such as population, birth rates and death rates, life expectancy, along with the traditional demographic methods (cohort-component approach). Research technique. Box – Jenkins methodology of the analysis and forecasting of time series, particularly with regard to demographic data: total fertility rate in Russia (1990–2014), the number of marriages by months in Russia (2005–2015), total fertility rate in France (1740–2014) and the unemployment rate in Russia (1996–2016) was used in the work. ARIMA-, ARIMA- and ARIMA-models, depending on the nature of the dynamics of the studied indicators were analyzed. Results. The analysis had shown that the estimated ARIMA-models for the total fertility rate and number of marriages were adequate and had good statistical and prognostic properties. Forecasts were built on basis of the obtained models. In the case of long series availability of properties with a long memory processes have not been identified.

Complex Modernization of Agricultural Small Business Enterprises

Introduction. Small business in agriculture is essential and is a factor of development of the competitive relations in modern Russia. Today there is a complex of the various problems interfering strengthening of a role of small enterprises in agriculture. Empirical analysis. Indicators of technical equipment of agricultural producers and load of agricultural machinery across Russia are compared with similar data on the developed countries and the conclusion is drawn on considerable lag of the Russian agrarian sector from this countries. The analysis of activity of JSC Rosagroleasing, has allowed to reveal shortcomings of work of the company and to formulate offers concerning development of the market of leasing in Russia to which number dispersal of the state capital and further extension of the offer in the market of preferential leasing and crediting of agricultural producers for purchase of agricultural machinery belong; expansion of base of the offer of agricultural machinery for leasing. Conclusion. Modernization of agricultural small business enterprises assumes carrying out complex actions for three main directions: to updating of material and technical resources of small enterprises; to introduction of innovative technologies in agricultural production; modernizations of management of small enterprises. The condition of material and technical resources of the agricultural enterprises can be estimated as unsatisfactory.

Project Management: Mathematical Models of Optimal Executors’ Appointment for Project Works

Introduction. The majorityof projects implemented in the world community exceeds in duration and cost limits indicated on the planning phase, so they are not successfully executed. In our opinion, the main reason for this situation is the complexity of the optimal selection and appointment of executors to perform main project work, coupled with the lack of consideration for a number of important factors. Theoretical analysis. Theory and practice of project management and operations research proposed a number of optimization models for drafting work schedules taking into account their interrelationships, as well as the necessary resources. These models are usually referred to a class of extremely NP-hard, which explains some difficulties for their effective implementation into practice. Methodology. The basic problem of optimal selection and executors’ appointment for project work, which takes into account the topology of the network schedule, as well as the optimization criterion serving the duration of the project is researched. In researched model the limits on the total cost of all the work for the project are set, and it is determined that only one executor is involved for each job, which, if necessary, is able to perform a number of tasks. Results. During the research more significant limitations, which are implemented in the model and can significantly expand the scope and improve the efficiency of its use in practice, were developed by authors. The article provides a detailed description of the meaningful data limitations, as well as their correct formalization.

Integrated Service Center Cultural Industries in the Russian Regions

Introduction. Applying the idea of integration into the cultural industries will more accurately solve local problems of internal organization and control of business processes. Theoretical analysis. In the article the author provides a unified model of integrated service centers of cultural industries fully adapted to the needs of the environment with regard to specific subjects of the Russian Federation. Creating an integrated system of regulation and control of flow processes should be implemented with the help of economic mathematical model of the dynamic combination of «market-to – consumer services», based on the principles of logistics. The integrated service package provides a series of joint institutions, funding sources and initiatives included in the design, development and provision of services in the form of final goods and services to end-users and owners on the basis through management of service flow to make them quantitative parameters and qualitative characteristics in accordance with the requirements of the environment. Results. The development of integrated logistics systems in the cultural industries can effectively solve the problems of economic growth depressed subjects of the Russian Federation.

Multi-criteria Evaluation of Target Efficiency of Inmate’s Labor Adaptation as a Tool to Improve Economic Security

Introduction. In the conditions of turbulence of world economy, the introduced international restrictions and the sanction against the Russian Federation, and also sharp decrease in the world prices for energy carriers the question of search of new conceptual approaches to providing economic security of a manufacturing sector of criminal and executive system is staticized. Theoretical analysis. Manufacturing activity in the penitentiary system is carried out through the employment of convicts and is aimed at the social and labor adaptation of convicts. One way to improve the economic security of the penitentiary system of the economy performs multi-crit analysis of the target efficiency of labor adaptation of convicts. In the process of evaluating the effectiveness of targeted labor adaptation of convicts: determined by the structure of the system of labor adaptation of convicts; formed by a group of experts and quantitatively assessed by expert judgment; in a matrix of priorities, priority vectors are computed and indicators for assessing the consistency; visually presented results of the study. Results. The developed technique of multi-criteria analysis of the target efficiency of labor adaptation of convicts allows you to distribute the degree of influence factors and to assess its condition at some point in time.

Review of Modern Tools for Innovative Development Impact Assessment

Introduction. The problem of evaluating the performance of universities is exacerbated when it is required to quantify the efficiency of universities. To date, the search for methods of integrated assessment of the contribution of universities to the development
of regional innovation systems based on the relevant scorecard. Theoretical analysis. The basis of the technique of the contribution of universities in the evaluation of innovative development of the regions should be correctly selected scorecard constructed in such a way that they yield to quantify and were directed to assess the performance of universities on the location of the regions, it is important that considerations of accuracy and reliability of the assessment made. Empirical аnalysis. Based on the initial analysis of basic and specific parameters of 15 modern tools to assess the development of innovative techniques highlighted elements relevant for the construction the model of university’s impact assessment to innovative development. Results. The analysis outlined the possible elements for the construction of model of the university’s impact assessment. Regional innovation development: the system of indicators used to quantify the main innovation trends. Relevant objectives of the study is also the most common form of organization as large-scale evaluation of the analytical research method and index ranking of selected objects of study.

To the Issue of Mathematical Modeling of Process of Functioning of the Instrument-making Enterprise when Usingthe Experimental Data of its Activities

Introduction. Automation control instrument-making enterprise (PP) relies not only on the introduction in its composition of technical means and computing devices, but also on the mathematical model of its production and economic activity. For further development and expansion of modeling capabilities to reduce oscillatory (instability) of the production process, in article we propose to combine the approach based on the use of the principles and methodology of the theory of automatic control (TAU) used in the creation of the virtual process control system of production of similar products of the enterprise instrument and the mathematical description of the dynamics of production activities, PP. Theoretical analysis. To the present time developed structural scheme of enterprise’s activity, based on the above theory, one of the key principles is the principle of backward linkages that improve the quality of management, efficiency of management decisions and thus the sustainability of production of the company. Obtained and the corresponding mathematical models, illustrating structural diagrams. However, there remains a need for further development of the mathematical interpretation of feedback reflecting the influence of the latter on the sustainability and stability of production process PP. Methods. Mathematical model PP without automated control systems, i.e. naturally without the introduction of feedback, the article claims correspond with an open loop control (PSC). Accordingly, a continuous mathematical model of PP with feedback loop reflects the PP with a closed control circuit (FOD). For him mathematical model of the production unit (PSU) corresponds to the PP model, obtained experimentally. As a model production unit PSC adopted model derived from real data of production activities of one of the claims of Saratov. Results. In article the mathematical model of the functioning of the claims covered by the feedback control, i.e. closed the instrument-making enterprise (RFP). They are reduced to normal form of differential equations assigned to them and the coefficients of the feedback and other parameters. Further these equations are presented in the form convenient for the solution in the Mathcad program produced and mathematical modeling. For comparison is given also the simulation of the original RFP, in which the algorithms are given positive and negative feedback (control). It was shown that these control algorithms do not eliminate fluctuations in the production process. Was subject to adjustment in the coefficients of the control algorithms, PP. It is shown that when negative feedback is increased and when the transmission coefficient of the feedback loop, the oscillatory (the ratio of the amplitude of the oscillatory component of the process to its systematic, relatively permanent component) is affected to a lesser extent on the work of the PP, due to the structure of mathematical model of work of the RFP. Conclusions. Proposed approach allowed the modeling of the production activity of PP under different settings and conditions in feedback control loop and to find their optimal values.

Economic Aspects of Damage Determination from Agricultural Lands Non-targeted Use

Introduction. The article deals with the problem of agricultural land non-targeted use and the damage determination. The purpose of research – to improve the calculating methods of the damage value caused by agricultural land inappropriate use. Objectives: to determine the size non-targeted use in the years 2009–2013 under the Samara region; to analyze the dependence of the damage size caused by territorial location; formulate a particular calculating method at the levels of «enterprise» and «municipal district-region».

Empirical analysis. The study found that non-target use sizes are constantly increasing. Placing objects on the territory of the region does not depend on the profitability of agricultural land, as agricultural production is less competitive compared to the extractive industries. In determining the loss size must be taken into account features of their formation over time, which depends on the type of damage source.

Results. In the reporting period, the damage amount is constantly growing, which is associated with the mining companies expansion. If in 2009 was built 50 wells for various purposes, in 2013 – 236. Direct dependency on the damage size caused by the territory placement have not been identified.

Approaches to the Methodology for Assessing the Contribution of the University in the Innovative Development of the Region

Introduction. Strengthening the role of universities in regional development is determined by the relevance of the studies to identify the direction of the impact of the university on the region, as well as to assess how effective are the results of the impact of regional development.

Theoretical analysis. To identify and assess the role of universities in regional development in the foreign studies used different models to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the contribution of universities to social and economic development of the regions and innovative.

Methodology of the study. The development of a methodology for assessing the contribution of the university in the innovative development of the region involves determining approaches to setting trends, the degree of time and the impact of changes in the environment of the object of its operation. Evaluation of the contribution of the university in the innovative development of the region – an assessment of the impact of its dynamics on change in the functional structure of the region.

Results. Rate the university’s contribution to the innovative development of the region on a functional approach proposed by the following parameters: the presence of knowledge economy in the functional structure of the regional economy; its share, the nature of the interactions functionally organized units of the regional economy, the presence/absence of innovation rents; the level of innovative competitiveness of the regional economy. Drafted assessment will determine the presence and nature of the contribution (positive/negative effect) University in the innovative development of the region.

Investment Portfolio Risk Assessment on the Basis of Hierarchical Model

Introduction. Efficiency of investments is an important factor at the micro- and macroanalysis of economy, investment in venture capital depends on the development of firms, regions, States. Especially actual this problem for portfolio investment. The aim of this work is to develop a new minimax method for modeling the dynamics of risk of portfolio investment, which allows to assess the distribution of equity is a structural component of a financial portfolio.

Methods. Suggested new method for modeling and rationalizing the structure of equity investments using the minimax criterion. Drill through the decision of the investor as from the original portfolio preferences, specific risk assessments for each lower level in the hierarchy (topdown) and a calculation of expediency of inclusion in the portfolio of each asset of the lower level, with specific risk assessments (bottomup), which is consistent with the approaches of fundamental analysis of securities market. Provided step-by-step algorithm for grouping, clustering and data analysis along the branches of the hierarchy.

Results. Is developed the scheme the implementation of the model for a three-tier structure for complete binary decision tree. Is given the iterative computational algorithm and its implementation.

Conclusion. The recommendations can be applied to rationalize the funding of innovations that improve the quality of development of regions in the rehabilitation plan for selected executives of corporate sector.