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Inozemcev E. S., Kochetygova O. V. Spatial Panel Analysis of Fertility and Life Expectancy in Russia. Izv. Saratov Univ. (N. S.), Ser. Economics. Management. Law, 2018, vol. 18, iss. 3, pp. 314-? DOI:


Spatial Panel Analysis of Fertility and Life Expectancy in Russia

Introduction. Spatial aspects of most important demographic indicators (fertility and mortality) need further studies. The purpose of this work is to assess the impact of spatial effects and external factors on the level and dynamics of the total fertility rate and life expectancy in European Russia. Theoretical analysis. Total fertility rate and male/female life expectancy made use of depended variables. Three variants of spatial weight matrices were chosen: inverted weights matrixes (γ = 1 and γ = 2) and gravity economic weights matrix (with GRP as economic indicator). Empirical analysis. The analysis based on the panel data for 55 Russian regions in 2004–2015 (660 observations). The hypothesis of available of spatial lag verified through Moran’s I. Three empiric models estimated and compared: spatial autoregression model, model with exogenous variables and spatial Durbin model. Results. This study proved the existence of spatial effects for both dependent variables. The best results showed herewith fixed effect models with inverted weights matrix. Spatial Durbin models (with relative capacity of ambulances as independed variable) has optimal level of log-likelihood.


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